CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Tue 20 Dec 06:00 - Wed 21 Dec 06:00 2005 (UTC)
ISSUED: 20 Dec 10:33 (UTC)
FORECASTER: VAN DER VELDE

Thunderstorms are forecast across the Black Sea

SYNOPSIS

Stably stratified vertical profiles dominate most of Europe due to a large high pressure area. No deep convection is expected elsewhere than the Black Sea and perhaps a small portion of the southern Baltic Sea. The Mediterranean sees cloud tops of -10 to -15C which probably does not allow enough electrification either. However, isolated waterspouts may occur also with shallow convection, where low-level lapse rates and buoyancy are strong, if there is a local source of convergence.

DISCUSSION

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